Santorum's triple victory could change GOP race
Mitt Romney's march to Republican presidential nomination was abruptly interrupted by Rick Santorum's victories in Colorado [an important swing state], Minnesota [which Romney carried in 2008] and Missouri [another swing state]. More importantly, going into primaries in Michigan and Arizona on 28 February and Super Tuesday on 6 March, when 10 states will vote and nearly a fifth of all delegates be awarded, Romney's credentials as the front-runner are severely bruised.
Colorado was the most competitive and the most important state of the day [as a must-win state for Republicans] and Santorum emerged victorious with 40% of the vote to 35% for Romney, 13% for the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 12% for Texas congressman Ron Paul.
In Minnesota, where Romney had a massive support from the former governor Tim Pawlenty, Santorum won 45% of the vote to 27% for Paul, 17% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. And when Missouri votes were counted, Santorum had 55% to 25% for Romney and 12% for Paul, with Gingrich not contesting in this state.
However, turnout was very low, which could explain the results, as conservatives and Evangelical voters tend to turn out and vote, while more moderates may have decided to stay home, as none of the delegates for the final GOP Convention were awarded.
Nevertheless, this is an important game changer in the Republican race to the presidential nomination. Romney's winning streak was stopped and Rick Santorum gain immense momentum. He [re]established himself as the conservative alternative to Romney, side-lining Gingrich and rallied Christian voters. In addition, Santorum used his populist economic policy and Romney's recent gaffs to attract blue-collar voters to his camp, which could prove significant in the upcoming contest in Michigan.
Romney, however, still has the GOP establishment on his side, almost limitless amounts of money for campaigning and every chance to snatch the final victory. Strangely, he stopped the negative campaign he ran against Pennsylvania senator the moment these three primaries finished and moved on to attack President Barack Obama. It is possible that Romney's team decided to take a calculated gamble, let Santorum win these three non-binding primaries, gain momentum over the other [arguably more dangerous] conservative – Gingrich – and by doing so split the votes of hardcore conservatives in Super Tuesday, where Gingrich hoped to do well. Not to be forgotten, Romney still has three times more delegates [including predictions loosely based on the results in the last three states] than the closest rival – Gingrich.
Gingrich placed his hopes in the Super Tuesday, when his home state Georgia will vote, as well as some other southern states, such as Tennessee and Oklahoma, where he expects to repeat the performance from South Carolina. However, if Santorum manages to maintain his current momentum and fully captures the conservative part of GOP voters, Super Tuesday may signify the end of the road for Gingrich, though he pledged to contest in Texas and proved to be a fighter.
Gingirich was actively campaigning in Ohio, one of the key states in Super Tuesday and key battlegrounds for the November elections. It is, however, another state in which Santorum's populism and appeal to blue-collar white workers could be decisive.
Ron Paul, who did well in all three states is hoping to win the forthcoming caucuses in Maine, aa state well known for its escapades off the mainstream. Libertarian Paul, whose anti-interventionist, small government, tax cutting agenda resonated well among independents and youth could be a real contender in 11 February caucuses. Regardless of anything, Paul is poised to continue spreading his ideology and campaign and gather delegates for the GOP Convention in Tampa.
If Romney manages to continue splitting the social-conservative vote [as they are obviously not voting for him in these primaries] between Santorum and Gingrich, and win the states with more moderate electorate, he could probably fulfil the predictions from the beginning of the campaign and emerge as the challenger to president Obama.
However, the longer the campaign goes, the dirtier it gets and candidates start appearing weaker, helping the re-election plans of the Obama-Biden administration.
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