The old new Russian president
Vladimir Putin speaks at a reception marking his inauguration in Moscow, 7 May. AFP PHOTO/ RIA-NOVOSTI/ ALEXEY DRUZHININ
In Russia, there is a second New Year recognised – the Old New Year (stariy noviy god), which takes place after the regular New Year more universally observed. On that note, Russians joke that Vladimir Putin is the Old New Russian President. On 7 May, Putin took back the formal reins of power he ceded to Dmitry Medvedev in 2008, when he faced a bar on a third straight term after eight years as president.
But Putin's return to the Kremlin for a six-year term that has sparked a new wave of protests. “He has to change because the level of trust has been so low that the feeling that he really has no alternative but to now make Russia more open and responsible with greater rule of law, greater transparency and therefore open for business. It’s not in his interest to do otherwise,” Justin Urquhart Stewart, Director of Seven Investment Management in London, told New Europe on 8 May. “However, he’s on a honeymoon so the honeymoon period for a second-hand president is even shorter than a new president. He’ll have a shorter honeymoon than Monsieur [France's president-elect Francois] Hollande because they have a new leader, Russians have a second-hand leader and Greece has no leader at all,” he added.
Russian protesters also criticised a job swap between Putin and Medvedev. The latter was due to be confirmed as the new prime minister by the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. Medvedev's candidacy was expected to come to vote at parliament on 8 May with the support of the ruling party and one nominally opposition faction guaranteeing approval.
“Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, or nearly any other high-level official, would arguably be a more effective choice. But effectiveness isn't Putin's goal,” Lilia Shevtsova, a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, and David J. Kramer, President of Freedom House, wrote in their blog. “Instead, his criteria are based on loyalty, keeping a corrupt architecture intact, and eliminating potential threats.”
Putin and Medvedev's private decision to trade places angered many Russians already aggravated by fraud-tainted legislative polls in December followed by Putin's controversial presidential election victory in March.
On 6 May, police officers arrested another 400 people following an anti-Putin rally in Moscow. While Putin was being sworn in on 7 May, police cleared central Moscow streets and confronted protesters, detaining 300 more, according to news reports.
On 7 May, Putin called for unity and pledged to strengthen democracy in his inaugural address. "We will achieve our goals if we are a single, united people — if we hold our fatherland dear, strengthen Russian democracy, constitutional rights and freedoms."
Putin said he and the Russian people had already trodden a difficult path together. "We believed in ourselves and in our powers, strengthened the country and restored the dignity of our great nation. The world has seen Russia reborn, and this is the result of the efforts of our people — shared, intensive work in which everyone has made a personal contribution."
On 7 May, Russian stock futures climbed as Putin returned to Russia’s presidency vowing to forge ahead with state asset sales and improve the country’s investment climate. Urquhart Stewart told New Europe that the same applies for Medvedev due to return to the post of prime minister again. “The markets listen to the rhetoric and they are giving him the benefit of the doubt for the time being on the basis it’s not in his interest to do otherwise. However, in a few months unless we start seeing some tangible openness and greater confidence being built, then he may well find the same markets being working against him,” he said.
Opening his speech before the State Duma on 8 May, Putin congratulated MPs on the upcoming Victory Day on 9 May. “We all know Dmitry Medvedev as an experienced politician, aimed at reforms and development, as a true patriot of his country,” Putin said. “I believe Dmitry Medvedev will be open for further constructive cooperation with all parties and movements, with the country’s parliament and its factions,” he noted.
Putin is under pressure to show he can adapt to the new political landscape and push much-needed reforms go to improve the investment climate. The $1.9-trillion economy is in better shape than most European Union countries, but relies heavily on export commodities, mainly oil and gas. Putin has said he wants to attract more foreign investment by improving the business climate, reduce corruption and red tape, and end Russia's heavy dependence on energy exports.
Putin will probably continue to propel the economic modernisation initiated by Medvedev, and will introduce tax reforms to support agriculture and infrastructure construction. Acknowledging that the state-owned sector accounts for too high a percentage in the national economy, Putin will continue to develop a market economy and welcome private investment. But while implementing market reforms Putin is also going to have to improve social welfare and medical treatment.
Putin may also increase his anti-Western rhetoric if the domestic situation worsens. His foreign policy will probably become tougher, based on his view that the world should be multi-polarised, and in which Moscow needs a greater say. Putin will probably pay special attention to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Customs Union. At the same time he will try to improve relations with the European Union.
Regarding energy, during his campaign, Putin wrote in an article that Russia must construct a united energy policy with the EU. “He began to speak about the unification of our energy strategies between Russia and European Union,” Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund (NESF) in Moscow, told New Europe. “It’s out of question that European Union is still our main consumer,” he added.
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