CHINA

Opinion: China's 'instability' concerns?

The Chinese government is continuing to tighten its control over the people. It is an indication that the Communist Party is expecting difficult economic times going forward, writes DW's Philipp Bilsky.

It was probably the biggest blow dealt to civil rights lawyers since Xi Jinping became China's president. Over a 100 "weiquan lüshi" - as they are called in Chinese - their employees and activists were detained or questioned by the Chinese authorities at the end of last week.

They were accused of belonging to a "major criminal gang" that had "seriously disturbed order." Although some of those summoned by the police were later released, the move is likely to have left a lasting effect, as such a systematic approach against lawyers had not yet been implemented in this form.

The latest developments came just two weeks after the government adopted a new law to "protect national security." What constitutes national security is formulated very vaguely: It covers cultural, political, military and economic issues, as well as technology and the environment, among other areas. The vague wording of the law gives the Chinese government wide discretion.

And this is only one of several laws that seem to facilitate the authorities' tightening grip over the public. Beijing is also preparing new legislation to regulate the activities of foreign NGOs operating in China, in addition to legislation against terrorism and cybercrime.

DW's Philipp Bilsky

This approach by the Chinese government is both predictable and surprising. It is predictable because for the past two years, the government has continued to tighten its grip on the Chinese people. There has been increased censorship of the media and the Internet. At the same time, President Xi has concentrated more power in his hands, as opposed to the so-called policy of "collective leadership," adopted by previous governments.

However, the approach is also surprising because something comparable had not existed in China in recent years. In view of this, the decade-long rule of former President Hu Jintao and ex-Premier Wen Jiabao seem to be an almost "liberal phase."

So the questions remain: Why is the government doing this? Why now? Only the Chinese leadership could answer these questions with absolute certainty. But it seems that the Communist Party is expecting difficult economic times ahead, which could threaten its hold on power. In the coming years, China has to reinvent itself economically. The country's growth model has so far been based primarily on cheap labor, strong external demand, and multibillion dollar investments from foreign companies and the government.

But the years of China's superfast economic expansion are over. Instead, the government is speaking of a "new normality" which involves sustainable, yet slower growth, true to the motto quality over quantity. However, this is easier said than done.

On top of this is the fact that a new generation of Chinese is growing up whose childhood has not been affected by famines or economic shortages. They view their country's economic expansion of the past decades as self-evident and it will be a huge challenge for the authorities to please this generation in times of slower growth.

This means that it will become increasingly difficult for the Chinese government to keep the key promise that has legitimized their rule thus far, namely that the vast majority Chinese people are benefitting from the economic growth. But it seems that the Chinese leadership is well aware of the challenge. The Communist Party is now demonstrating how it wants to maintain what it views as "stability" in economically difficult times: through intimidation and the oppression of potential protesters.